French election: Far-right RN projected to win first round

As France starts preparing for the decisive second round of the parliamentary vote next weekend, centrist and left-wing parties have already started speculating on a joint election strategy, including presenting a united front to counter RN.

Details of that strategy, however, remain unclear.

Using the numbers available from today's vote, French broadcasters project that RN could take between 240 and 270 parliamentary seats next Sunday.

This is still short of 289 seats needed for absolute majority in parliament.  However, RN could look for allies among smaller parties that are projected to take 21 seats, or the conservative Republican party, which is expected to take between 30 and 50 seats.

All projections are intentionally left with a large margin of error since the outcome of the vote is highly uncertain at this stage. 

A meaningful representation of the future National Assembly will only be possible after the second round, following runoff elections in the constituencies that have not yet been decided.

Thousands of people are gathering at the Republique plaza in Paris to protest against the far-right National Rally's (RN) lead in the first round of French parliamentary election.

One of the protesters told the AP news agency that France was "going towards the extreme."

"People don't understand that this will impact us for years and years," 19-year-old political science student Cynthia Fefoheio said. "This is a France of hate that is growing, not a France of solidarity and union."

Another protester, 23-year-old public worker Daniel Gwendal, said he was hoping for a wide-reaching front against RN. "I hope for a union between the right and the left," he said.

Soon after the vote results were announced, both Emmanuel Macron and the head of the leftist NFP bloc, Jean-Luc Melenchon, signaled they were open to a non-aggression pact in order to deny seats to Marine Le Pen's RN. 

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal warned that the far right was "at the gates of power" following the first round of the parliamentary election.

"Our objective is clear: to prevent the RN from getting elected in the second round. Not a single vote must go to the National Rally."

"France does not deserve that," he added.

The 35-year-old prime minister was appointed by centrist Emmanuel Macron in January. He, like leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon, also called for strategic withdrawals of candidates in the second round of voting on July 7 to prevent RN from securing an absolute majority. He said around 60 pro-government candidates would be dropping out of the second and decisive round of voting. 

Earlier this evening, Macron also called for a "democratic and republican alliance" against RN.

Eric Ciotti, the chief of the Republicans party, has described the first round of the French parliamentary election as a "great success."

Ciotti has held on to his post as head of the conservative Les Republicains (LR), despite facing a mutiny from inside the party due to his friendly stance towards RN. Senior members of the party voted to boot Ciotti earlier this month, but the veteran politician has disputed the legality of the vote.

On Sunday, LR won around 10% of the vote, far behind the top three parties.

But Ciotti praised the "historic union" with RN's Jordan Bardella.

"Victory is in sight tonight,"  Ciotti said, adding that the French people expressed their "desire for change and transformation."

DW presents a visualization and a recap of the popular vote standings after the first round of voting in France. The projections and exit polls of the major broadcasters vary slightly, but only by tiny margins. All point to the same trends.

Broadcaster TF1 anticipates 34.2% support for National Rally (RN), 29.1% for the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), and 21.5% for Macron's "Together" alliance (Ensemble or ENS). 

Center-right party Les Republicains, once a powerhouse in French politics with past presidents like Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, was a distant fourth with 10%. 

 

Centrist President Emmanuel Macron tried to set up a "suffocating choice" between himself and the RN, leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon said on Sunday evening.

Melenchon is the head of La France Insoumise which is a part of the New Popular Front (NFP), a broad alliance of left-wing parties. The bloc is projected to win 28.5% of the vote and place second after the far-right RN, but ahead of Macron's Ensemble.

Commenting on the voting outcome, Melenchon said it was clear that the current head of government Gabriel Attal "will no longer be prime minister."

He said the vote "inflicted a heavy and indisputable defeat on the president."

At the same time, the 72-year-old leftist signaled he was ready to work with Macron to keep RN from winning runoff races.

The leader of France's far-right National Rally party, Jordan Bardella, said he was ready to be the "prime minister of all French people" if his party wins an absolute majority in the second round of elections.

"I will be a 'cohabitation' Prime Minister, respectful of the constitution and of the office of President of the Republic, but uncompromising about the policies we will implement," Bardella said.

"The French people have handed down a clear verdict," Bardella said after his party appeared to have won the first round of the early parliamentary elections.

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen is urging voters to give her National Rally an "absolute majority" in parliament after estimates showed her party won 34% of the vote.

“Nothing has been won yet and the second round will be decisive, to avoid the country falling into the hands of the [NPF] alliance, from an extreme left with a tendency to violence," Le Pen said, using the alliance's former name in her direct quote. 

The second round will be decisive in giving Jordan [Bardella, her candidate for prime minister] an absolute majority in the National Assembly, to next week begin reestablishing unity and national consensus in France.

Le Pen said her party "needs" an absolute majority "for Jordan Bardella to be appointed prime minister by Emmanuel Macron in eight days."

She also said President Emmanuel Macron's camp was "almost wiped out" in the first round of French legislative elections.

If the National Rally does not command an absolute majority, the likelihood does seem high that Macron would seek a unity government involving other forces in parliament.

With France's next parliament set to be decided in the runoff vote next Sunday, leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon said his New Popular Front (NFP) is ready to tactically drop election races if it helps beat far-right RN.

"In the event of a three-way fight, if the National Rally is in the lead and we are third, we will withdraw our candidacies," he said after the first round of voting concluded on Sunday evening.

Under French election rules, any candidate with at least 12.5% of the total number of registered voters is qualified to run in the second round, where the candidate with the highest number of votes wins. However, those candidates are free to give up the race.

While signaling his willingness to help other parties against RN, Melenchon also noted that his NFP is also a force to be reckoned with as it is facing many races "with no real competition."

"Our instructions are simple, direct and clear: not one vote, not one more seat for the RN," he said.

Melenchon may be hoping that Macron displays a similar willingness to cooperate, given Macron's calls for a broad alliance against RN.

French President Emmanuel Macron is urging voters to block the far-right in the crucial second round of parliamentary elections after the National Rally party won the first round, according to estimates.

"Faced with National Rally, the time has come for a broad, clearly democratic and republican alliance for the second round," he said in a statement.

Macron also said that the high turnout in the first round illustrated "the importance of this vote for all our compatriots and the desire to clarify the political situation."

The second round is scheduled for next Sunday, July 7.

The far-right National Rally (RN) party made gains in the first round of France's legislative elections, according to early projections released after polls closed.

According to Ipsos Talan projections, RN is set to win the largest share of the national vote, at 34%. 

The left-wing and center-left NPF bloc was second, with 28.1%. 

And President Emmanuel Macron's "Together" alliance was in third, on 20.3%.

However, only a small number of seats are likely to be decided outright in tonight's first round. Voting habits may change in the second round when voters have more limited choices. Historically, this system has made it difficult for RN to cash in on its superiority in the first round.

It's 8 p.m. in France and most voting stations have either closed or are in the process of closing. 

The first television projections and exit polls should follow very shortly. Stay tuned.

As French voters flock to the polls in greater numbers, DW correspondent Lisa Louis says it is difficult to say who will benefit from the high turnout.

"You think that when more and more people turn out, the turnout may block the far right from coming to power. That was the case in the past with the so-called 'vote barrage' [meant] to create a dam against the far right coming to power," Louis said.

But she said a recent poll suggested that this increased turnout was no longer primarily against the far right — with firebrand leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon also apparently a turnoff for many less committed French voters.

"People now try to block the far left from coming to power, then they want to block Macron from staying in power, and in the third place comes the National Rally," Louis explained.

"It remains to be seen what the final result will be," she added.

Voter turnout in the first round of the French legislative elections reached 59.39% at 5 p.m. local time, compared to 39.4% at the same time in 2022.

"This is the highest level since the 1986 legislative elections and already higher than the 2012, 2017, and 2022 elections," Mathieu Gallard, research director at the Ipsos polling institute, said on X, formerly Twitter.

Polling stations in mainland France are scheduled to close at 8 p.m. local time.

Polling stations on the mainland are due to close by 8 p.m. local time (1800 UTC) on Sunday.

Immediately after polling ends, French media outlets will publish their projections from the first round of the legislative election, which normally have a high degree of accuracy.

Early official results are expected later on Sunday night.

The office of French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said that he would make a statement about the outcome of the first round on Sunday evening.

Under election rules in France, any lawmaker who receives more than half of the votes cast in their district wins a seat in the National Assembly outright in the first round. But this must also correspond to at least a quarter of the registered voters in the constituency.

In practice, very few candidates will manage this feat in round one, so it may be difficult to draw any conclusions from Sunday's results.

After the first round, several candidates in each district are then expected to drop out of the race to help other more popular contenders in the runoff and block victories by far-right candidates.

The runoff next Sunday, July 7, will be where most seats will be allocated. After those results are in, President Emmanuel Macron should then, in theory, choose the country's next prime minister from the strongest party in the Assembly.

If, as is expected, either the leftist coalition or the far-right RN takes the most seats, Macron would be forced into a period of cohabitation, which would see his power limited to foreign policy, the military and EU affairs.